Market Outlook Analysis - December

As of Friday’s close, the market has fully priced in 2025 earnings, with a PE ratio of 22.3x, representing earnings of $270.4 per share. In my view, this valuation is quite stretched. With the Federal Reserve expected to slow its monetary easing, the market will either need to remain range-bound to allow earnings multiples to catch up or face a potential correction.


I believe the 2025 PE ratio will range between 21x and 23x. Translating this into price levels, the market could be between 5,775 and 6,325 in the first half (H1) of the year. By the second half (H2), the focus will shift to pricing in 2026 earnings.

The upward movement in multiples can be attributed to structural shifts in efficiency. As we ship fewer physical goods and rely on fewer people to achieve the same outcomes, profit margins increase, driving earnings growth and justifying higher multiples.

Looking ahead to 2029–2030, I anticipate PE multiples reaching 30x, with earnings surpassing $400 per share. This would set a potential upside target of over 12,000.


As I’ve mentioned before, this is a macro perspective—trade accordingly or look for price divergences to capitalize on opportunities. A recession isn’t on the horizon anytime soon, and leverage isn't as high as 1999 or 2008. My plan is to buy into the market during moments of panic or fear when opportunities arise.
Location: Dubai - United Arab Emirates

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